not same drop rate

Discussion in 'General Archive' started by SUPERDOUPER, Dec 30, 2016.

Dear forum reader,

if you’d like to actively participate on the forum by joining discussions or starting your own threads or topics, please log into the game first. If you do not have a game account, you will need to register for one. We look forward to your next visit! CLICK HERE
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. SUPERDOUPER

    SUPERDOUPER Junior Expert

    why does bp boosting some players with hogher drop rate than others? shouldnt drop rate be the same for all, i know players who have completed uniques sets in 5 runs and getting all tier 3 uniques and gold line items way too easy, i cant even remeber when i got a weapon with golden stats and i farm all fatals daily let alone tier 3 unique,, and why does bp hides % drop chances for uniques?
     
    Atish998 likes this.
  2. Sunlight

    Sunlight User

    Hey there @SUPERDOUPER ,

    Everyone in the game needs to be patient ...
    About your point of view, I would like to clarify that drops are random and nobody has control (or power to control) your drops... it all depends on luck.
    Drop is totally random and, of course, enchantments too :(

    Cheers and good luck! ;)
     
  3. UndergroundKiller

    UndergroundKiller Forum Expert

    Example: dropping a legendary 2handed axe from a mob in Nahuatlan has a 0.5% (or 0.00000000001%, i don't know) chance to happen.
    My friend kills 200 mobs there and he finds two legendary 2-handed axes.
    Then I go to nahuatlan, kill 200 mobs and I don't find any legendary 2-handed axes.

    I'm not totally sure about this... but did he actually steal my drop?
    [Ofc not (or maybe...:eek:)]

    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    Simply every single item has a % drop rate. Killing 200 mobs doesn't really summ that chance because every time you kill a mob and you don't find (example) a legendary 2h axe, the next mob won't drop it at 1%, but still at 0.5%

    (Same as for PWs bosses)
     
  4. Tilwin90

    Tilwin90 Padavan

    No control... hehe, maybe from the perspective of the players :) Behind the scenes however there is a statistical model to ensure uniques drop rarely, while legendaries drop in normal circumstances less often than extraordinaries etc. Whether the drop is completely independent of the player is unknown of course (hence we can't simply assume that all players present in the group have equal drop chance rates if damage inflicted to killed monster is taken into account for instance - though I've done some experiments on Gorga regarding this and it doesn't seem to matter). But we can expect the same rules apply for everyone of course, and that nobody is "changing" the system for a specific player or another!
    Also, players have noticed varying drop rates. If you talk about 1-2 kills it's not relevant, but during the last Dragan event I know a lot of players noticed the unique drop rate went lower. After killing 100 times Dragan in the past event, and 100 times in the current event, you get some idea on what's going on, especially if multiple players notice it. So we get a feeling when looting tables are tampered with.

    However SUPERDOUPER, because we talk about statistics, the drop obeys statistics rules. Therefore, we could take a simple example of considering an unique item dropping with a 20% chance from a specific monster (say, for instance, Vargulf). I am using a random number here.
    To make a much more practical parallel, let's consider critical hit chance instead - hence a chance of 20%. It's similar to drop rate but since it's visible to the players you can actually experiment with it to validate these facts. It takes absolutely no other factors into account other than actually delivering damage to an opponent.

    Firstly, 20% chance is the same with 1 in 5. However, hitting your opponent 5 times does not guarantee that you get a critical hit. Nor does it mean you can't have a first lucky critical hit. It simply states that on average 1 out of 5 hits you deliver are critical hits.
    Secondly, this rule does not split the occurrences in windows - people are tempted to think that if we have a 1 out of 5 critical hit chance, we should look at groups of 5 consecutive hits. This is very important because there are situations where you might notice streaks of critical hits occurring, or long series of 10-15 hits that deliver no critical damage.
    Finally, the statistical model becomes relevant on large amounts of data (or occurrences). The smaller the chance, the larger the amount of data to draw a sensitive conclusion. I know Baragain here ran an actual experiment to prove that critical hit chance works properly - the more hits he dealt, the closer the average chance got to the actual critical hit chance he had.

    To better explain this, consider the following sequence of hits (hypothetical once again): {NC-NonCritical, C-Critical}
    [NC, NC, NC, NC, NC, NC, C, C, NC, C, NC, C, NC, NC, NC, C, C, C...]
    - If you study the first 5 hits only, we see they are all non critical. => 0% critical hit chance, right?
    - If you study the first 8 hits, you see 6 non-critical 2, critical => 2/8=1/4 = 25% critical hit chance?
    - If you study a million hits (while under the same critical hit chance), you will notice that the critical hit chance approaches 20% (maybe it's 19.82% or 20.03% or something, not a perfect 20%, but very close to 20%).

    This applies to uniques as well. Of course, since their drop chance is so small, you need loads of kills to get there.
    A simple example is to consider a unique dropping at a boss with a 0.1%. So that's 1 every 1000 kills (give or take).
    What's the chance of that boss not dropping the unique after you kill it a specific number of times? Let's use a formula for that... Considering that the chance of the unique NOT dropping is 99.9%, and having n kills, it would be: 99.9%x99.9%x... (n times) = 0.999^n.
    So if you kill it 100 times, that would be 0.999 ^ 100 ~ 90%.
    What if you kill it 1000 times? About 36.7%
    2000 times? About 13.52%
    3000 times? 4.97%
    The more you kill it, the less likely (statistically) it is that the unique will not drop. But still, there is that possibility. In our control it's only the persistency and what we do with the dropped items (say, craft for instance, or melt).

    Hope this eases some of the annoyance and why, although frustrating, via this statistical model some players simply drop uniques more often than others. I haven't even considered the situation where there are more possible uniques dropped by the same boss, or pieces dropped from a looting chest (say for example for the Undefeatable dolls). But when using this model of rewarding the players this is what you end up with. It's a decision taken by many RPGs and MMORPGs, hence why people need to "farm like crazy", and also why some get it easier than others.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2017
  5. HurrDurr

    HurrDurr Forum Apprentice

    Who says that that drop system should always revolve around set probability?
    There are other drop-systems that could be at work here. Hovewer we can only compare our experiences and speculate.
    I for one am more inclined to say that drop is emitted periodically by some sort of timer. For example take some unique "A" from PW boss. Say that every 3 hours 2x "A" uniques are emitted (can be dropped) by whomever comes first. Then another 3 hours must pass for another 2 uniques to be dropped. And so on
    In other words: "You have to be at the right place in right time".
    Consider this my personal observation. I'm also not saying whether this kind of system would be good or bad. Just throwing it out as a possibility.
     
  6. Tilwin90

    Tilwin90 Padavan

    I experimented at some point with Gorga as I wrote above. She used to drop tons of uniques from the atlantis set. Me and my friend both farmed her. Dropped uniques pretty often. So I really don't think people steal uniques from one another.
    The global emitter system seems highly unlikely primarily because of it being a bottleneck. But try and play at weird hours on weird bosses that are not farmed intensively and see what happens. If the global emitter theory were true, you would drop the unique you need pretty fast. Plus if you were fast enough, you could get it multiple times.
    Right place and right time also seemed like a theory I had at some point (say, time of day), but looking in retrospect it was just the period of time when I used to play more. The more you play, the more likely you are to drop (though again, not guaranteed).
    We make these speculations based on what we think we observe (taking some subjective factors into account), when in truth, it can just as easily and explainable be a pseudorandom number generator behind the scenes.

    Another fun example here are cubes - for a while I was convinced cubes have drop predefined when you grab them. Guess what? They don't! I figured this out by opening cubes right between teleporting to town.
    You noticed that sometimes items you identify just then end up once again un-identified? Or not moved into the inventory? That's because while on the server the TP already occured on the local client it might not have synced - so you perform changes locally that are not propagated to the server. (this seems to have even more often during lag times)
    So I noticed that while for items it would present the same stats when identified "a second time", for cubes, this reproduces into different drops. This makes me wonder whether the drop is actually calculated locally instead of the server. How they guard this behind the scenes to avoid tampering, that's another story.
    (please note that this is all theoretical and based on what I observed - it is possible that drops from cubes and kills to be processed separately and completely differently).
     
  7. rpfo

    rpfo Padavan

    I play this game for 2 years +. Drops might be random , but they dont happen to all players. Till some point , u will get frustrated because ur m8s are with full sets and u are not. With time , u learn that instead of wait for ur drops, u really dont need them. I carry legends and estraordinary items , and when im in group peeps says : Whats ur base dmg? lol

    So , its sad at some point, but just farm and if ur drop dont come, grab an item thats far better :)

    ps.: Never droped predator for instance , but i hope one day Ill have the ring of inner fortitude (even if i wont use it).
     
  8. rjrichards

    rjrichards Forum Pro

    This holds true until this day about Gorga. I farmed for the Deep Sea Set achivement and had the set in <20 kills.
     
    Tilwin90 likes this.
  9. Tilwin90

    Tilwin90 Padavan

    I remember how hard I got Grimmag's Starry Robe back in the old days. I had to kill Sigri around 3000 times before it dropped. Of course back then it was the only unique you could get from level 35 Sigri. But I did play on probabilities and ultimately it paid off. So yes, I do believe there is a statistical model behind everything, and that if you persist, sooner or later the unique will drop. It's math, not magic.

    I got Ring of Inner Fortitude during the Dark Dwarf Heist back when I was level 45. Used it a lot because it gave both attack speed and mana (which was really relevant back then due to Lightning Strikes being so significant).

    Hmm... Now that you mention, I remember how I had this sick idea of getting Black Warlord Regalia with two Rings of Inner Fortitude, Grimmag's Starry Robe (level 35 one) and now possible to add Mana Crystal too. In theory that would be:
    (100 + 70 (Grimmag's Starry Robe 55) + 2*38 (Ring of Inner Fortitude 55)) * (100%+30%+25%) = 246*1.55 = 381 mana

    You could of course employ Solstice stars and Starlight to further pump up the numbers. But then again, this is starting to sound like a "tons of mana, nothing to do with it" build.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.